Metropolis: Five New Realities

Real estate ultimately is about people; with how many there are and what their ages are; where they live; how they earn a living; how they spend their money; and how they are divided by race and ethnicity. The Brookings Institution, in a new report, titled “The State of Metropolitan America,” discusses the five “new realities” that are on the front lines of demographic transformation. These are briefly described below.

Growth and Expansion

The U.S. population passed 300 million, and in the next decade an additional 28 million people will live here. The nation’s large metro areas grew by a combined 10.5 percent in the past decade as compared to 5.8 percent growth in the rest of the country. At the same time, the metro areas continue to spread out and their less developed outer areas grew by more than three times the rate of the cities and inner suburbs.

Population Diversification

The U.S. population now is one-third nonwhite, and these groups accounted for 83 percent of population growth between 2000 and 2008. Nearly one-quarter of U.S. children have at least one immigrant parent. This coming-of-age generation, 30 years from now, will begin the transition to a majority non-white nation. Large metropolitan areas will get there first as their under-18 population has already reached majority non-white status by 2008.

Aging of Population

U.S. baby boomers and seniors now number more than 100 million. Large metro areas are experiencing a 45 percent increase in the 55 to 64 year-old population between 2000 and 2008. As a result, single person households are growing more rapidly as well, often in suburban communities not designed with these populations in mind.

Educational Attainment

More than one-third of U.S. adults held post-secondary degrees in 2008, up from one-quarter in 1990, helping to stimulate economic growth. However, younger adults, especially in large metro areas, are not achieving these same levels. Moreover, the African-American and Hispanic groups, who will make up a growing share of the future workforce, lag between white and Asian counterparts in large metro areas to a significant degree.

Income Polarization

The typical American household saw its inflation adjusted income decline by more than $2,000 between 1999 and 2008. Low and middle wage workers lost considerable ground, but high wage workers had earnings rise. Large metro areas stood at the vanguard of such troubling trends. By 2008, high wage workers in large metro areas outearned low wage counterparts by a ratio of more than five to one, while the number of persons living in poverty had risen 15 percent since 2000.